Fulham FC’s 2019 Finances Predicted

Fulham 2019 Financial Predictions

Fulham enjoyed a spectacular Wembley Play-off victory in 2018 to achieve promotion back to the Premier League for the first time since 2014 ahead of the 2018/19 season.

The season began with much hope after an ambitious summer transfer spend that saw Fulham become the first promoted side to spend over £100m in the season after promotion.

Although they didn’t lack ambition, it was not reflected in performances on the pitch with Fulham condemned to relegation following a 19th placed Premier League finish.

Despite relegation, one season in the Premier League will see their 2019 finances rocket with a huge rise in revenue expected.

Let’s get into the numbers.

Revenue Prediction

Matchday Revenue

Fulham earned matchday revenue of £7m in 2018 in the Championship. Promotion to the Premier League will bring higher ticket prices and attendances rose from 19,896 to 24,371 (22%) as fans clamoured to see their team in the top flight for the first time in five years.

When Fulham were last in the Premier League, matchday revenue was £12m, and that was five years ago. We expect matchday revenue to reach similar levels and increase by around £5m.

Commercial Revenue

Fulham’s commercial revenue was £8m in the Championship, relatively high at that level due to their historic performances and London status.

Fulham had the same kit manufacturer (Adidas) as in 2018 however they signed a new lucrative deal with DafaBet (replacing Grosvenor Casinos) which will see a significant boost in commercial revenue.

Promotion is likely to see performance related clauses activated in existing partnerships while there is likely to have been a host of new commercial partnerships owing to their (short-lived) Premier League status.

Based on this, we expect commercial revenue to rise to around £13m. Commercial revenue was £12m in their most recent Premier League campaign (2013/14).

Broadcasting Revenue

Premier League Payments

Fulham earned broadcasting revenue of £23m in 2018, largely from the English Football League (EFL) for their Championship performance (3rd). This is where Fulham will see a huge uplift in revenue, with Fulham earning Premier League distributions of £102m after finishing 19th and being featured on TV 13 times during their relegation battle.

Domestic cup performances were very similar to as in 2018 and therefore no material financial impact is expected.

Based on this, Fulham will likely see an increase in broadcasting revenue of £80m to £103m, a 348% increase in broadcasting revenue, showing once again the huge riches available on promotion.

Total Revenue

Total revenue was £38m for Fulham in 2018. Based on the above predictions, Fulham will see a huge £90m in revenue to around £128m. This increase may be even larger if commercial revenue rises by more than we expect.

Relegation will see revenue begin to fall right back down after their short-lived Premier League stay. A drop of 30-40% is likely in 2020.

Costs Prediction

Amortisation

Fulham had amortisation of £19m in 2018 which was already relatively high for a Championship club. After a huge transfer spend of just over £100m ahead of their first Premier League campaign in five years saw eight new signings enter Craven Cottage.

Based on the reported transfer fees and contract lengths, amortisation is likely to rise by between £20-£25m to around £40m, more than double the 2018 numbers.

Wages

Fulham spent £54m on wages in 2018. This does include promotion wage bonuses that will not be present in 2019.

Based on reported wages of their new signings and new contracts for their promotion heroes, wages are likely to rise by between £15-20m to around £70m, on the basis that promotion wage bonuses had already been recorded in 2018.

Other Operating Costs

Other operating costs were £26m in 2018. Promotion to the Premier League is likely to see such costs rise a few million pounds to £30m.

Total Costs

Fulham recorded total operating costs of £99m in 2018. Based on the above, total costs are likely to rise by around £40m to £140m as the club spent big in a bid to retain their Premier League status.

The rise in costs (£40m) is less than halve the expected rise in revenue (£90m), therefore a huge improvement in profitability is expected.

The rise in costs however could be greater if reported wages are wide of the mark. Wages will drop significantly following relegation due to outgoing players and relegation wage drop clauses, a necessity if Fulham are to comply with EFL Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations.

Transfers Analysis

Fulham had a busy summer ahead of the 2018/19 season spending over £100m on eight players who were meant to secure Premier League survival .

In came Seri (£27m), Anguissa (£22m), Mitrovic (£22m), Mawson (£15m), Bryan (£6m), Fabri (£5m), Le Marchand (£4m) and Babel (£2m) for a combined £103m.

The only departure was Button for £4m.

This led to a huge £99m transfer net spend, the largest ever by a promoted side. Unfortunately for Fulham, the signings (other than Mitrovic and Babel), failed to perform as expected as the new signings struggled to settle in England with five of the signings experiencing English football for the first time.

Fulham recorded a profit on player sales of £14m in 2018, this is likely to fall by around £10m after the only sale in 2019 being Button for £4m, who is likely to see a profit of around £3m recorded on his sale.

Fulham also owed £19m in transfer fees in 2019, this was however largely offset by being owed £12m, with the £7m net not affecting transfer plans significantly.

Profit/Loss Prediction

Fulham recorded a significant loss in 2018 of £46m after paying promotion related bonuses under low revenue conditions.

Based on the above predictions, Fulham are likely to still be in a slight loss making positon of between £5-10m despite a £90m rise in revenue.

A profit could be recorded if commercial revenue rises by more than expected or wages/amortisation rise by less than expected which is possible. However, for Fulham, their financial position is likely to be one around the break-even point due to heavy spending in 2018/19.

It looked to have paid off following promotion, but poor signings and an immediate return to the Championship mean that the club are likely to be under FFP players immediately on their Championship return.

The sale of youth prospect Sessegnon in 2019 will go a long way to easing this financial pressure but it will be interesting to see how Fulham balance the goal of returning to the Premier League with the financial scrutiny they may be under by the EFL.

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The True Costs of Transfers

Premier League True Summer Transfer Cost

The True Costs of the Premier League 2018 Summer Transfer Window

The Premier League transfer window has officially shut with over £1.2bn spent by Premier League clubs ahead of the new season.

Clubs have to be wary of Financial Fair Play when purchasing players to avoid penalties and bans (for more on this click here) and also need to ensure they are running sustainably for their owners etc.

This brings us to this article, which will explain the true costs of transfers from the 2018 summer transfer window explained briefly below:

When clubs sign a player, from an accounting perspective this is not all charged in the year of the transfer as the payments are matched to how the player will be used. So, a player signing for £50m on a 5-year contract is deemed to cost the club £10m a year, known as the amortisation cost. This is the true costs of the transfer per season for the club.

Another key element is player sales. In this regard the profit the club gain is not simply the transfer fee received minus the transfer fee paid, it is the transfer fee received less the remaining value of the player sold. So, for a £50m player on a 5-year contract, he will be ‘worth’ £50m minus the amortisation charges to date, so after two years of charges, the player will be ‘worth’ £30m. Hence, should a player be sold 2 years later for £50m, a ‘profit’ of £20m will be recorded, rather than nothing like many people believe.

This article will analyse each Premier League club’s business and compare to their counterparts.

Due to the availability of data, this excludes the costs of loans and player wages. All transfer fees and contract lengths are via Transfmartk.co.uk. In order to simplify the amortisation costs, we have ignored contract renewals which make the calculation more complex without much added insight.

Let’s Not Talk About Spend, Let’s Talk About Net Spend

Premier League Transfer Net Spend

Premier League clubs had an active transfer window despite its shortening, spending over £1.2bn, receiving only £353m in return, leaving the club with an astronomical net spend of £909m.

This was due to higher spending by certain clubs, with Liverpool leading the way by a distant after investing heavily following their Champions League heartache with Naby Keita, Fabinho, Alisson and Shaqiri joining while only Danny Ward left, leaving the merseysiders with a net spend of £151m.

Fulham became the first promoted club to ever break the £100m barrier after a barnstorming transfer window with 7 players arriving for transfer fees and only 1 leaving. This led to the club having a net transfer spend of £101m with Seri the pick of the players signed.

Fellow West Londoners Chelsea had the third biggest net spend at £92m after breaking the world transfer record for a goalkeeper in the £72m paid for Kepa after losing Courtois to Real Madrid and they also signed Jorginho.

Manchester United and Manchester City had quiet windows with both making one big purchase a piece with Fred joining United (along with Dalot and Grant) and Mahrez joining City.

At the other end of the scale were Watford with a net transfer spend of minus £23m after not reinvesting all of their Richarlison windfall. Newcastle also were in the black after recording a net transfer spend of minus £13m as Mike Ashley used transfer cash received to purchase House of Fraser rather than reinvest in the Toon.

Additional Amortisation Costs

Premier League Amortisation Costs

Premier League clubs face additional transfer costs of £275m this year alone after a huge transfer spend of over £1.2bn, with this cost spread of the players signed contracts which average at just over 4-year contracts.

Amortisation costs are, as explained above, based on transfer spend and contract lengths and as such the costs are higher for larger spends and also higher when contract lengths are shorter. A key example is Kepa, a £72m keeper who signed a 7-year contract, costing Chelsea just over £10m a year. While Mahrez, a £61m purchase on a 5-year contract cost Manchester City more at just over £12m a year despite the smaller transfer fee.

Liverpool unsurprisingly lead the way after their impressive transfer window where they spent £164m with Alisson signing a 6-year contract while Keita, Fabinho and Shaqiri signed 5-year deals. Liverpool will have additional costs of £31m after these deals.

Fulham had the second highest net spend after their £105m 7 player splurge with contracts lengths 4 years on average, bringing amortisation costs of £24m over that period.

Leicester despite their relatively small net spend have a large transfer costs due to their £103m spend with the Mahrez deal diluting their net spend after the club reinvested the Mahrez cash and then some, leading to an amortisation cost of £22m.

Chelsea and West Ham also had large amortisation costs above £20m after their productive transfer windows.

Tottenham were at the other end of scale after an inactive transfer window, becoming the first club since the transfer window came into effect in 2003 not to purchase or sell a player.

Crystal Palace were the only other club to have an additional amortisation cost below £5m.

Amortisation Costs Savings

Premier League Amortisation Savings

Premier League clubs saved £41m on amortisation cost after after player sales of £353m with many players sold either brought cheaply or have been long serving players that no longer attract amortisation costs after staying longer than their original contract.

Amortisation costs savings are driven again by the transfer fee paid when the player was brought and their original contract length. So, for instance Daley Blind signed for Manchester United 4 years ago for £15.8m on a 4-year contract, costing Manchester United just under £4m a year for those 4 years. Now that the 4 years are up, Blind costs United nothing from an accounting perspective, so no amortisation costs are saved and hence no savings included in our calculations.

As such many Premier League clubs didn’t recorded any savings as the players sold had already seen their entire transfer fee amortised. This includes players signed as youths such as Danny Ward at Liverpool or long serving players such as Courtois at Chelsea.

In a couple of situations, players were signed and immediately sold. This was the case for Benik Afobe at Wolves and Mikel Merino for Newcastle. In both these cases the amortisation costs were excluded when calculating additional costs and savings.

Bournemouth were the biggest savers, saving just under £8m after the sales of the after mentioned Benik Afobe to Wolves (before Wolves later sold him to Stoke), Lewis Grabban and Max Gradel.

Everton (£7m), Newcastle (£6m) and Watford (£5.5m) were the only other clubs to save in excess of £5m on player sales after the sales of the likes of Klassen, Mitrovic and Richarlison.

Burnley, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Tottenham sold no players hence the reason for their lack of amortisation costs savings.

Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Southampton and West Ham also had no amortisation costs savings despite player sales due to the players sold having been at the club for at least their original contract lengths such as Courtois, Danny Ward, Blind, Tadic and Kouyate.

Profit, Profit, Profit (Or Loss)

Premier League Transfer Profit

Premier League clubs due to this made profits on their sales of £247m after selling players for £353m, a 70% return on investment.

When players are sold, as seen above, this may not lead to amortisation costs savings if the players amortisation costs were low due to the price paid or they have been at the club a long time.

This doesn’t mean they receive nothing, as the amount earned is recorded as a profit on player sales. This is recorded as the transfer fee received minus their remaining value as explained in the introduction. However, to avoid you having to scroll up, here is an example from this season using Courtois.

Courtois cost Chelsea £8m 7 years ago on a 5-year contract, costing the club £1.6m a year initially. Each year he is worth less of his transfer fee, so after 1 year he is worth £6.4m and after 2 years £4.8m etc. After 5 years he is worth essentially zero, at this point when he is sold the transfer fee received is all profit, so Chelsea record a profit of £31.5m.

Clearly the biggest benefiters here were Leicester after their sale of Mahrez was essentially all profit and hence the club recorded a profit of £67.1m.

Chelsea also benefited as described above, whilst Watford were the only other club to record a profit of more than £30m after their sale of Richarlison.

Everton were one of only two clubs to make a loss after the costly purchases of Klassen and Funes Mori who they both made a loss on after buying them recently and then selling on the cheap. Leading to a loss of £3.8m.

Arsenal also made a loss on the flop transfer of Lucas Perez, diluted slightly by the sale of academy graduate Akpom.

Burnley, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Tottenham made no transfer sales and hence recorded no profit or loss this year.

The Summary – The True Cost

Premier League True Transfer Cost

To work out the true cost of this transfer window we use the following formula:

Additional amortisation costs – Amortisation costs saved -/+ Profit/Loss on player sales.

This gives an interesting picture for Premier League clubs with a net transfer costs of minus £13.9m! Meaning Premier League clubs as a whole have saved on transfers this year from a Financial Fair Play perspective.

This is heavily skewed due to the net savings made by Leicester, Watford and Newcastle in particular.

Leicester, due to the Mahrez deal have made a saving of approximately £50m after their new signings, while Watford and Newcastle have also saved in excess of £20m.

Both Manchester clubs are in the black after making one big purchase each and selling a couple fringe players.

Chelsea are also in the black after selling Courtois.

Fulham have the highest cost of £20m after their sensation transfer window in which they spent hugely for a Premier League newcomer, making a statement on their ambitions.

Liverpool were unsurprisingly up there with a net cost of £18m. Everton and Arsenal were the only other clubs with a net cost exceeding £15m.

To put this all into perspective there is a mismatch. The profits received are all given in the period of sale, while new transfers are spread over their contract. This means that Chelsea, despite making a profit on Courtois, and hence their net costs are negative, will indeed see amortisation costs rise in the long run as next year they will not have that Courtois profit.

The same is the case for amortisation costs saved, for some of the players sold, they may only have had one more year of amortisation costs and as such this saving will not be there next year and hence they will see amortisation costs rise the following year.

Amortisation costs have risen over the years and will continue to as long as clubs net spends are still as large as they are.

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Fulham 2018 Financial Review

Fulham endured their third consecutive year in the Championship, enjoying their best campaign since relegation after finishing in the last playoff spot. However, their season finished in disappointment after a semi-final defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. This misery was relatively short lived as they bettered that performance this year to gain promotion back to the Premier League.

However, yet another season in the relative poverty of the Championship led to yet another loss-making season, with a loss of £21.3m incurred (2016: £12.5m), something they will be hoping will change after promotion.

Let’s delve into the numbers.

Fulham Profit:Loss

Revenue Analysis

Fulham Revenue

Fulham’s revenue remained fairly stable this year, falling ever so slightly from £36.0m to £34.9m (3.1%).

Matchday revenue rose from £5.7m to £6.6m (15.8%) on the back of an impressive campaign for the West Londoners, led by Slaviša Jokanović, the club began playing an attractive brand of football that stuck bum to seats and increased gate receipts. This was supplemented by their domestic cup performance after a run to the FA Cup Fifth Round.

Broadcasting revenue dropped, falling from £24.6m to £21.0m (14.6%) as parachute payments dropped £4.2m, outweighing the increased revenue from a good league campaign and their FA Cup revenue.

Commercial revenue rose from £4.7m to £6.0m (27.6%) in what was a good commercial campaign for the club as their football on the pitch led to their popularity of it enhance. Fulham exploited the London premium in commercial revenue and will be looking to exploit this further after promotion.

Other revenue rose from £1.0m to £1.3m (30%).

Revenue should rise after experiencing a promotion winning campaign this season with the extra revenue gained from the additional TV games and improved league position, however this will be the last year of parachute payments which may negate this rise. However, another good commercial campaign as well as rising matchday revenue should help Fulham to higher revenue next season.

Expense Analysis

Fulham Operating expenses

Fulham saw a steady increase in expenses despite stable revenue as expenses rose from £66.8m to £73.1m (9.4%).

Amortisation costs more than doubled, soaring from £6.3m to £15.2m (141.3%) after Fulham invested significantly in new players, a worthwhile investment after gaining promotion partly on the back of this.

The club also incurred impairment losses as they had to write off costs incurred on an alternative proposal for their Riverside Stand redevelopment that was not used. This impairment loss added a sizeable £7.1m to their costs for the year.

Fulham had minimal finance costs as all debt owed and owing are to their owner’s interest free.

The club for obvious reasons paid not tax due to their loss-making status, carrying sizeable tax losses of £44m that can be used should they return to profitability on their Premier League return as they hope to.

Fulham Wages

Wages remained stable despite player investment, rising by £1m to £37.1m (2.8%) after the departures of high wage players Mitroglou and McCormack offset the wages of their new signings.

Directors pay rose after a good season, increasing from £795k to £955k (20.1%) with the highest paid director receiving £726k.

Transfers Analysis

Fulham Net Transfer Spend

Fulham enjoyed a productive transfer season with lots of transfer activity as 10 players joined while 7 departed Craven Cottage.

In came Sigurdsson (£4.2m), Kebano (£4.0m), Sanchez (£3.6m), Johansen (£2.1m), Button (£2.1m), Ayite (£1.8m), McDonald (£1.4m), Madl (£1.4m) and Odoi (£0.9m) while Martin joined on loan for £1.6m, coming in at a total outlay of £23.0m.

Out went McCormack (£12.9m), Mitroglou (£6.3m), Stekenlenburg (£0.9m), Smith (£0.5m), Lonergan (£0.3m), Pringle (£0.3m) and Amorebieta (£0.3m) for a combined £21.4m.

This saw Fulham have a net transfer spend of £1.6m compared to a net transfer income of £7.8m last year as Fulham began to show more ambition as fans grew impatient on waiting for a Premier League return.

It was Fulham’s cheaper deals that worked out the best for the club with McDonald and Odoi impressing while managing to get good fees for the wantaway duo of McCormack and Mitroglou was a huge success.

Fulham made an accounting profit on player sales of £17.4m as they profited on the sale of McCormack in particular.

Fulham owe £10.0m in transfers fees to clubs while they are owed £12.8m, putting them in a healthy position as far as transfers goes while they may owe an additional £0.8m if certain contingent transfer clauses are met by ex-players.

Fulham paid out cash of £16m in the year while £10.3m cash came back in to the club from transfers at a net cash outlay of £5.7m, down from £8.1m last year despite having net transfer income last year.

Assets/Liabilities Analysis

Fulham Net Debt

Fulham’s new found ambition saw debt levels soar as the club looked to finally return to the Premier League.

Cash levels fell from £5.6m to £3.9m (30.4%) on the back of the club’s loss-making status while their transfer activity also further depleted cash, resulting in Fulham’s owners boosting cash levels with a £29.5m loan to allow further investment to take place. Fulham also invested £12.5m in the club’s infrastructure with the purchase of Motspur Park which is adjacent to their current training facilities.

Debt levels nearly doubled, rising from £36.4m to £65.7m (80.5%) on the back of the after mentioned loan from Khan. All debt is owed to the owners with Fulham having no bank debt and minimal finance leases. The new loan was mainly used to support transfer activity and the stadium redevelopments as Fulham look to grow as a club as they prepare for their Premier League return.

Net debt hence more than doubled from £30.8m to £61.8m (100.1%) as Fulham test their sustainability limit and took bogger risks to secure a Premier League return. Fulham are going to reap the rewards of this in due course once their new Premier League riches become apparent. The future looks bright for Fulham.

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