Cardiff City’s 2019 Finances Predicted – Conservative Cardiff

Cardiff 2019 Financial Predictions

Cardiff secured their second season ever in the Premier League after an unexpected promotion-winning campaign in 2018 under Neil Warnock.

The season was always expected to be a difficult one in attempting to avoid relegation, however it proved even more emotional due to the sad passing away of Sala following his signing in the January transfer window.

Despite an emotional campaign, Cardiff put up a good fight in attempting to remain in the Premier League, showing signs of revival until a controversial loss to Chelsea halted their momentum and relegation was shortly after confirmed.

The riches of the Premier League are apparent throughout these predictions with a swing in their financial situation detailed below in what proved to be a financially successful season for Cardiff despite relegation.

Let’s delve into the numbers.

Revenue Prediction

Cardiff would have been predicting a large increase in revenue following promotion and won’t be disappointed with a huge increase likely on last season’s £33m revenue.

Cardiff 2019 Revenue Prediction

Matchday Revenue

Matchday revenue is usually the most stable revenue source for clubs with attendances staying fairly constant year on year. However, this wasn’t the case for Cardiff who saw average attendance rise from 20,146 to 31,229 (55%) as fans clamoured to see their team back in the big time for the first time since 2013.

This, combined with the higher ticket prices from their Premier League status, is likely to see a sizeable increase in their matchday revenue to around £9m from £5m. In comparison, Cardiff had matchday revenue of £8m last time they were in the Premier League in 2013/14.

Commercial Revenue

Commercial revenue has slowly deteriorated since relegation where commercial revenue was £7m (2013/14). Commercial revenue went as low as £3m prior to 2018 where promotion saw commercial revenue increase to £6m.

Despite their main sponsor (Visit Malaysia) and kit manufacturer (Adidas) remaining the same, new deals with a variety of partners including a new sleeve sponsor (JD) and official betting partner (1XBet) will see a sizeable rise in commercial revenue to around £10m.

This however may be reduced by any relegation clauses negotiated with these sponsors.

Broadcasting Revenue

Premier League Payments

Broadcasting revenue has languished at between £20-30m since relegation from the Premier League, with Cardiff recording broadcasting revenue of £22m in 2018 following a 2ndplaced Championship season.

Now, following a season in the Premier League, Cardiff will benefit in a sharp rise in revenue due to receiving £103m from the Premier League for their 18thplaced finish and for featuring on TV 12 times.

This will be the majority of Cardiff’s broadcasting revenue due to insignificant domestic campaigns with exits by the Third Round in both.

At £103m, this represents a £81m, 368% increase in broadcasting revenue.

Total Revenue

Based on the above predictions, matchday revenue and commercial revenue will increase by around £4m each while broadcasting revenue will increase by around £81m give or take.

This will see total revenue increase to approximately £122m, an £90m increase from 2018, showcasing the huge riches on offer for securing promotion to the Premier League.

This affect won’t last long following relegation, although parachute payments will soften the blow. However, despite parachute payments, Cardiff can expect their revenue to fall by around 30-40% following relegation.

Costs Prediction

With promotion, costs are expected to increase significantly in order to compete and try and survive in the Premier League. A conservative Cardiff however seemed to play it financially safe as detailed below.

Amortisation

Cardiff recorded amortisation of £5m in 2018 and after spending £46m in the summer saw a large increase on this total.

(Due to the sensitivity and uncertainty surrounding Sala, any financial analysis has omitted his transfer fee and wages).

Based on the transfer fees recorded and their reported contract lengths, we expect amortisation to rise by around £8m to £13m.

Wages

Cardiff saw a large rise in their wages in 2018, from £29m to £48m (66%), largely due to exceptional costs relating to promotion bonuses to players and staff which won’t be incurred this year.

Based on available information on their signings’ wages, new contracts and also due to the lack of outgoings, we expect underlying wages to rise by around £10m. However, due to the promotion bonuses recorded, actual wages is likely to fall by £13m from 2018, an unusual situation but one that does occasionally happen (Newcastle saw their wages drop following promotion).

Other Costs

Cardiff had over costs of £14m in 2018. Following promotion to the Premier League, these costs are likely to increase significantly due to the extra costs of functioning as a Premier League club due to additional administrative, broadcasting and security costs.

We expect costs to increase to around £20m on the back of these assumptions.

Total Costs

Based on the above predictions, we expect costs to increase slightly to around £70m from £67m, a relatively small 4% increase.

With revenue increasing by such a large extent absent of a significant rise in costs, profitability should improve hugely for a club that has incurred a loss in 6 out of the last 7 seasons.

This also means that there should be less pressure on Cardiff to reduce their costs and wage bill following relegation which may well position them for an immediate return to the Premier League.

Transfers Analysis

Cardiff saw a number of incoming signings from the Championship, a league they and their manage are familiar with and hence had trust in them to potentially make the step up to the Premier League.

In came Murphy (£10m), Reid (£10m), Cunningham (£4m), Smithies (£4m) and Bacuna (£3m) for a total of £46m, more than their transfer outlays in the last 4 seasons combined.

There were no significant outgoings for transfer fees as Warnock looked to keep the majority of his group together.

The signings all did fairly well but proved limited in some areas which saw the club relegated despite their best efforts.

Cardiff had no player sales in 2019 and hence no profit on player sales. In 2018 Cardiff recorded a profit on player sales of £2m.

In terms of transfer fees owed, Cardiff are owed around £0.5m and owe roughly £2m, a £1.5m net creditor position. This isn’t a significant amount and gives Cardiff greater financial freedom in the transfer market, although this is likely to have increased following their signings unless the majority were paid up front, which is possible given the Premier League cash they received.

Cardiff may potentially also face some contingent transfer fee clauses, these were £2m in 2018 and are likely to have increased a fair bit.

Profit/Loss Prediction

Cardiff recorded a huge £36m loss in 2018 following promotion (a large portion does however relate to promotion bonuses of £23m). Following promotion and their newfound Premier League riches, Cardiff are likely to record a profit of £40-50m, an outstanding amount considering no player sales.

This is largely due to a conservative approach following promotion in which the club chose not to overspend to attempt to secure survival, potentially due to the odds seemingly being stacked against them from the beginning.

This financially safe approach does put them in good stead to be financially secure back in the Championship and sustainably build for a return to the Premier League in the next few years. It also will help with Financial Fair Play compliance which shouldn’t be an issue with their current financial health.

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Cardiff 2018 Financial Review – The Promotion Penalty

Cardiff Financial Review 2018

Cardiff surprised many in 2018, achieving promotion back to the Premier League at the fourth time of asking. The club had been stuck in mid-table following relegation and were expected to be closer to the other end of the table following a decline in investment and performances. However, Warnock and Co. thrilled their fans and achieved the incredible feat of automatic promotion.

Despite this achievement, the costs of getting the club ready for the Premier League was high and as such, increased Cardiff’s losses from £21.3m to £36.1m (69%), showing the immediate promotion penalty a club receives before the riches come in.

Let’s delve into the numbers.

Cardiff Profit:Loss 2018

Revenue Analysis

Cardiff Revenue 2018

Cardiff unsurprisingly saw a boost in revenue following promotion, with revenue rising from £27.1m to £32.8m (21%), a timely boost as the club came to the end of their parachute payments.

Matchday revenue rose from £3.5m to £4.9m (40%) as a fantastic season and improved performance saw disgruntled Cardiff fans return in their droves as attendance rose from 16,654 to 20,164 (21%). However, matchday revenue is still well below 2014 levels of £8.3m, showing there is still room for improvement in this area and Cardiff should see a further increase on their return to the Premier League.

Broadcasting revenue rose from £20.6m to £21.6m (5%) as the club moved up 10 places to 2nd in the Championship and featured more heavily on TV due to their exciting promotion battle. The increase in prize money and TV money was offset by the reduction in parachute payments after a fourth year in the Championship, making their return to the Premier League perfectly timed.

Commercial revenue was the largest climber, more than doubling from £3.0m to £6.3m (110%) as their imminent return to the Premier League boosted their popularity and led to new commercial sponsors and bonuses from existing ones.  Cardiff’s commercial income peaked in 2014 at £7.7m, so Cardiff will be hoping to surpass that figure this time round.

Looking ahead, there is no doubt that Cardiff will see a huge boost in revenue, which is likely to more than triple to in excess of £100m as the riches of the Premier League flood in to the club. The magnitude of the amount will depend slightly on their season performance, however even if the club are relegated, they should still realise revenue in excess of £100m.

Costs Analysis

Cardiff Costs 2018

Cardiff were hit by promotion with an unprecedented rise in costs, more than quadrupling from £15.5m to £66.9m (332%).

Steve Borley (Cardiff Director) put the cost increase down as ‘mainly due to additional commitments made to players, management, staff and other creditors as a result of promotion to the English Premier League’.

Amortisation did however remain relatively stable, increasing slightly from £5.0m to £5.1m (2%), showing that it was a tremendous achievement to gain promotion when club investment was relatively low.

The main reason as mentioned above for the huge increase in costs was £23.2m of exceptional costs ‘in respect of bonuses and other contractual commitments payable following promotion to the English Premier League’. These costs are usually high with clubs keen to reward players for their achievements and savvy agents negotiating hefty bonuses of this kind into player contracts.

Cardiff’s finance costs fell from £8.3m to £7.7m (8%) after a large fall in interest costs relating to overseas taxes, although this was slightly negated by an increase in interest due to an increase in shareholder loans owed to their owners.

Cardiff Wages 2018

Wages were up considerably, increasing from £29.0m to £48.4m (67%) as players were rewarded for promotion with bonuses, pay rises and new players entered the club with higher wages than the players they replaced in the summer.

This huge wage increase is equivalent to an extra £373k a week (just enough to get Ozil) and is likely to only rise further following promotion.

Among those to gain from promotion were Cardiff’s directors, whose total pay increased from £283k to £1,429k (405%), much to their delight after a job well done.

Looking ahead, costs will rise slightly, but to a lesser extent than revenue so Cardiff will hopefully be in a profitable position in 2019. An increase in wages and amortisation will be offset by the lack of exceptional costs next year, however the club may have considerable bonuses in place should the club survive, which could in fact significantly increase costs.

Transfer Analysis

Cardiff Net Transfer Spend 2018

Cardiff were relatively quiet in 2018 transfer wise despite securing promotion, focusing their main efforts on free transfers and a couple of key signings.

Joining Cardiff (for transfer fees) were Madine (£6.1m), Tomlin (£3.0m), Ward (£1.6m) and Bogle (£0.7m) for a combined £11.4m.

Only two players departed (for transfer fees) and they were Saadi (£1.4m) and Huws (£1.0m) for a combined £2.4m.

This led Cardiff to their first net transfer spend (£9.0m) since their only Premier League season and resulted in the club gaining promotion back to the Premier League.

The key for Cardiff didn’t seem to be the money spent, rather keeping most of the team together and adding some shrewd free transfers, especially Callum Paterson and Neil Ethridge.

The departures (which may include some of 2018 summer transfers) led to a small profit on player sales of £2.4m.

The club are also owed a further £0.4m in transfer fees however they owe a further £2.4m with both amounts due this year, this shouldn’t however be a concern with the influx of cash the club are going to receive following promotion.

The club may also have to pay a further £2.1m in contingent transfer fees should certain clauses be met by players in the future. Again, this minimal amount should not be of any concern.

During the year the club spent cash of £14.3m to buy players due to a host of instalments being due on transfers of previous years. This was a significant cash burden as the club only received £2.9m in transfer fees from other clubs.

Debt Analysis

Cardiff Net Debt 2018

Cardiff are historically a club of low cash reserves and fairly high debt, which has been slowly increasing of late. This trend showed no signs of changing as cash levels fell from £9.3m (abnormally high for Cardiff) to £2.9m (69%).

This cash depletion was mainly due to the cost of promotion as well as the large net transfer outlay this season. In order to finance these costs, Cardiff’s owners plunged another £25.4m into the club, however there were repayments of £11.0m to various parties, including the owners.

Debt levels rose from £115.1m to £137.3m (19%) on the back of the extra £25m investment (some old loans were repaid to the owners at the same time).

Cardiff fans and their owner will be hoping that a return to the Premier League will help the club be self-sufficient, however to stay there may require further capital, although the owners have shown they are not afraid to supply that.

An immediate relegation back to the Championship has most likely been prepared for due to the likelihood of this happening at the beginning of the season, meaning Cardiff should be financially secure should the worst happen (although they currently have a great chance of staying up).

It is also worth noting that the club have vaguely stated that a claim has been made against the club, however have not detailed anything further relating to its nature or amount. This could potentially, although unlikely, seriously impact their finances.

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The True Costs of Transfers

Premier League True Summer Transfer Cost

The True Costs of the Premier League 2018 Summer Transfer Window

The Premier League transfer window has officially shut with over £1.2bn spent by Premier League clubs ahead of the new season.

Clubs have to be wary of Financial Fair Play when purchasing players to avoid penalties and bans (for more on this click here) and also need to ensure they are running sustainably for their owners etc.

This brings us to this article, which will explain the true costs of transfers from the 2018 summer transfer window explained briefly below:

When clubs sign a player, from an accounting perspective this is not all charged in the year of the transfer as the payments are matched to how the player will be used. So, a player signing for £50m on a 5-year contract is deemed to cost the club £10m a year, known as the amortisation cost. This is the true costs of the transfer per season for the club.

Another key element is player sales. In this regard the profit the club gain is not simply the transfer fee received minus the transfer fee paid, it is the transfer fee received less the remaining value of the player sold. So, for a £50m player on a 5-year contract, he will be ‘worth’ £50m minus the amortisation charges to date, so after two years of charges, the player will be ‘worth’ £30m. Hence, should a player be sold 2 years later for £50m, a ‘profit’ of £20m will be recorded, rather than nothing like many people believe.

This article will analyse each Premier League club’s business and compare to their counterparts.

Due to the availability of data, this excludes the costs of loans and player wages. All transfer fees and contract lengths are via Transfmartk.co.uk. In order to simplify the amortisation costs, we have ignored contract renewals which make the calculation more complex without much added insight.

Let’s Not Talk About Spend, Let’s Talk About Net Spend

Premier League Transfer Net Spend

Premier League clubs had an active transfer window despite its shortening, spending over £1.2bn, receiving only £353m in return, leaving the club with an astronomical net spend of £909m.

This was due to higher spending by certain clubs, with Liverpool leading the way by a distant after investing heavily following their Champions League heartache with Naby Keita, Fabinho, Alisson and Shaqiri joining while only Danny Ward left, leaving the merseysiders with a net spend of £151m.

Fulham became the first promoted club to ever break the £100m barrier after a barnstorming transfer window with 7 players arriving for transfer fees and only 1 leaving. This led to the club having a net transfer spend of £101m with Seri the pick of the players signed.

Fellow West Londoners Chelsea had the third biggest net spend at £92m after breaking the world transfer record for a goalkeeper in the £72m paid for Kepa after losing Courtois to Real Madrid and they also signed Jorginho.

Manchester United and Manchester City had quiet windows with both making one big purchase a piece with Fred joining United (along with Dalot and Grant) and Mahrez joining City.

At the other end of the scale were Watford with a net transfer spend of minus £23m after not reinvesting all of their Richarlison windfall. Newcastle also were in the black after recording a net transfer spend of minus £13m as Mike Ashley used transfer cash received to purchase House of Fraser rather than reinvest in the Toon.

Additional Amortisation Costs

Premier League Amortisation Costs

Premier League clubs face additional transfer costs of £275m this year alone after a huge transfer spend of over £1.2bn, with this cost spread of the players signed contracts which average at just over 4-year contracts.

Amortisation costs are, as explained above, based on transfer spend and contract lengths and as such the costs are higher for larger spends and also higher when contract lengths are shorter. A key example is Kepa, a £72m keeper who signed a 7-year contract, costing Chelsea just over £10m a year. While Mahrez, a £61m purchase on a 5-year contract cost Manchester City more at just over £12m a year despite the smaller transfer fee.

Liverpool unsurprisingly lead the way after their impressive transfer window where they spent £164m with Alisson signing a 6-year contract while Keita, Fabinho and Shaqiri signed 5-year deals. Liverpool will have additional costs of £31m after these deals.

Fulham had the second highest net spend after their £105m 7 player splurge with contracts lengths 4 years on average, bringing amortisation costs of £24m over that period.

Leicester despite their relatively small net spend have a large transfer costs due to their £103m spend with the Mahrez deal diluting their net spend after the club reinvested the Mahrez cash and then some, leading to an amortisation cost of £22m.

Chelsea and West Ham also had large amortisation costs above £20m after their productive transfer windows.

Tottenham were at the other end of scale after an inactive transfer window, becoming the first club since the transfer window came into effect in 2003 not to purchase or sell a player.

Crystal Palace were the only other club to have an additional amortisation cost below £5m.

Amortisation Costs Savings

Premier League Amortisation Savings

Premier League clubs saved £41m on amortisation cost after after player sales of £353m with many players sold either brought cheaply or have been long serving players that no longer attract amortisation costs after staying longer than their original contract.

Amortisation costs savings are driven again by the transfer fee paid when the player was brought and their original contract length. So, for instance Daley Blind signed for Manchester United 4 years ago for £15.8m on a 4-year contract, costing Manchester United just under £4m a year for those 4 years. Now that the 4 years are up, Blind costs United nothing from an accounting perspective, so no amortisation costs are saved and hence no savings included in our calculations.

As such many Premier League clubs didn’t recorded any savings as the players sold had already seen their entire transfer fee amortised. This includes players signed as youths such as Danny Ward at Liverpool or long serving players such as Courtois at Chelsea.

In a couple of situations, players were signed and immediately sold. This was the case for Benik Afobe at Wolves and Mikel Merino for Newcastle. In both these cases the amortisation costs were excluded when calculating additional costs and savings.

Bournemouth were the biggest savers, saving just under £8m after the sales of the after mentioned Benik Afobe to Wolves (before Wolves later sold him to Stoke), Lewis Grabban and Max Gradel.

Everton (£7m), Newcastle (£6m) and Watford (£5.5m) were the only other clubs to save in excess of £5m on player sales after the sales of the likes of Klassen, Mitrovic and Richarlison.

Burnley, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Tottenham sold no players hence the reason for their lack of amortisation costs savings.

Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Southampton and West Ham also had no amortisation costs savings despite player sales due to the players sold having been at the club for at least their original contract lengths such as Courtois, Danny Ward, Blind, Tadic and Kouyate.

Profit, Profit, Profit (Or Loss)

Premier League Transfer Profit

Premier League clubs due to this made profits on their sales of £247m after selling players for £353m, a 70% return on investment.

When players are sold, as seen above, this may not lead to amortisation costs savings if the players amortisation costs were low due to the price paid or they have been at the club a long time.

This doesn’t mean they receive nothing, as the amount earned is recorded as a profit on player sales. This is recorded as the transfer fee received minus their remaining value as explained in the introduction. However, to avoid you having to scroll up, here is an example from this season using Courtois.

Courtois cost Chelsea £8m 7 years ago on a 5-year contract, costing the club £1.6m a year initially. Each year he is worth less of his transfer fee, so after 1 year he is worth £6.4m and after 2 years £4.8m etc. After 5 years he is worth essentially zero, at this point when he is sold the transfer fee received is all profit, so Chelsea record a profit of £31.5m.

Clearly the biggest benefiters here were Leicester after their sale of Mahrez was essentially all profit and hence the club recorded a profit of £67.1m.

Chelsea also benefited as described above, whilst Watford were the only other club to record a profit of more than £30m after their sale of Richarlison.

Everton were one of only two clubs to make a loss after the costly purchases of Klassen and Funes Mori who they both made a loss on after buying them recently and then selling on the cheap. Leading to a loss of £3.8m.

Arsenal also made a loss on the flop transfer of Lucas Perez, diluted slightly by the sale of academy graduate Akpom.

Burnley, Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Tottenham made no transfer sales and hence recorded no profit or loss this year.

The Summary – The True Cost

Premier League True Transfer Cost

To work out the true cost of this transfer window we use the following formula:

Additional amortisation costs – Amortisation costs saved -/+ Profit/Loss on player sales.

This gives an interesting picture for Premier League clubs with a net transfer costs of minus £13.9m! Meaning Premier League clubs as a whole have saved on transfers this year from a Financial Fair Play perspective.

This is heavily skewed due to the net savings made by Leicester, Watford and Newcastle in particular.

Leicester, due to the Mahrez deal have made a saving of approximately £50m after their new signings, while Watford and Newcastle have also saved in excess of £20m.

Both Manchester clubs are in the black after making one big purchase each and selling a couple fringe players.

Chelsea are also in the black after selling Courtois.

Fulham have the highest cost of £20m after their sensation transfer window in which they spent hugely for a Premier League newcomer, making a statement on their ambitions.

Liverpool were unsurprisingly up there with a net cost of £18m. Everton and Arsenal were the only other clubs with a net cost exceeding £15m.

To put this all into perspective there is a mismatch. The profits received are all given in the period of sale, while new transfers are spread over their contract. This means that Chelsea, despite making a profit on Courtois, and hence their net costs are negative, will indeed see amortisation costs rise in the long run as next year they will not have that Courtois profit.

The same is the case for amortisation costs saved, for some of the players sold, they may only have had one more year of amortisation costs and as such this saving will not be there next year and hence they will see amortisation costs rise the following year.

Amortisation costs have risen over the years and will continue to as long as clubs net spends are still as large as they are.

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Financial Football News Round-Up Edition 17

Financial Football News Weekly Round-Up 17

Here is your weekly financial football news round-up to keep you up to date with all things financial football! This is your round-up for the week commencing 5th March 2018, featuring Amazon, Manchester City, Bundesliga, Chinese Super League, Liverpool, Leicester and Wolves.

Amazon Infiltrate La Liga In New Documentary

Amazon La Liga Documentary

Amazon continue to increase their presence in football with the consumer giants set to produce a documentary on La Liga.

The documentary, Six Dreams is to feature Atletico Madrid midfielder Saul Niguez and Athletic Bilbao forward Inaki Williams among others, following their day to day activities aimed at the Spanish football fans.

Amazon are producing similar documentaries with Manchester City and Juventus having completed one for Argentinian giants Boca Juniors, with rumours of a second series of Six Dreams featuring Real Madrid and Barcelona already rife.

The documentary is scheduled for a 2018 fall release.

Serie A Have A New Chief In Town

Gaetano Micciché has been unanimously approved as the temporary president of Italy’s Serie A by all Serie A clubs as the Italian league look to overhaul the division to better compete with their European rivals.

Micciché is presently the chairman of financial services group Banca IMI and will be hoping to bring a fresh look at the troubled league that with the exception of Juventus, have failed to progress on and off the pitch.

Their new TV deal significantly lags those experienced in Germany, Spain and England and will need a long term strategy to bridge the gap.

Manchester City Agree US Barclays Deal

Manchester City Barclays Deal

Barclays have agreed a sponsorship deal with soon-to-be Premier League champions Manchester City to be their sponsor during their US preseason tour, where they compete in the International Champions Cup (ICC).

Barclays branding will appear on interview backdrops during pre-season player and manager interviews, while Barclays will hold various competitions and offers during the tournament.

IMG Win Chinese Super League TV Rights

Chinese Super League IMG TV Rights

Global sports agency IMG has agreed a three-year extension with the Chinese Super League for the distribution of the global TV rights to the upcoming league.

The new contract also includes in-flight rights, while IMG will also advise the Chinese Super League on television production for the league.

SWM Motors Secure Chinese Team’s Name

Continuing on a successful commercial week for the Chinese Super League, SWM Motors have also signed a sponsorship deal with the CSL club Chongqing Dangdai Lifan to rename the club!

The club will be named Chongqing SWM until 2020 for a fee of £21.3m, something that would cause complete outrage in England but is seen as financially wise in the forward thinking Chinese Super League.

Bundesliga are Completely Sleeved After Freiburg Deal

Freiburg Badenova Sleeve Deal

Freiburg have become the final Bundesliga side to sign a sleeve sponsor, signing a deal with energy company Badenova.

This means all Bundesliga clubs next season will sport sleeve sponsors, the first league to do this. The Bundesliga have done a good job of remaining financially competitive despite low TV rights compared to Spain and England and this is just another example of that impressive feat.

Wolves – Foul or Fair Play?

Wolves inevitable pursuit to the Premier League has hit a bump in the road after Championship clubs complained of Financial Fair Play, with accusations of suppressed transfer fees for their star players so they can 

Wolves connections through super agent Jorge Mendes has lead to some of Europe’s top young talent now plying their trade in the Molineux Stadium such as Ruben Neves and Diego Jota, players who have been linked with top Premier League clubs for fees larger than they paid in the past.

Wolves are “entirely comfortable” with their compliance with Financial Fair Play. We will watch this develop with intrigue and keep you up to date with developments.

Flurry of Financial Statements

In a big week of financial announcements the following clubs have released their financial results:

Premier League

Leicester

Leicester Financial Review 2018

Liverpool

Liverpool FC Financial Review 2017

West Ham

West Ham Financial Review 2018

Watford

Championship

Cardiff

Cardiff City Financial Review 2017

Ipswich

Nottingham Forest

QPR

Reading

Sheffield Wednesday

Wolves

League 1

MK Dons

Rotherham

We will be analysing all these accounts at FFN, stay tuned !

Directors On The Move

A new feature! Here is a list of Director movement at Premier League and Championship clubs this week:

  • Chelsea
    • In: Jonathan Guy Laurence
  • West Brom
    • In: Mark Jones Jenkins
    • Out: Richard Garlick
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Cardiff City 2018 Financial Review

Cardiff City Financial Review 2017

Cardiff had an overall good season after a horrid start, winning 2 of the their first 11 wins. This pushed their owners into action – bringing in veteran manager Neil Warnock to steady the ship, he did more than that, guiding the club to a comfortable 12th place finish. This was a success due to the start but a disappointment after he lofty ambitions set by the owners in pre-season not being met, compounded by early exits in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup  competitions.

Off the pitch performance was poor – The clubs losses rose an alarming 124% to £21.3m due to factors that will be discussed in this article. Revenues fell 13.7% while operating costs also decreased, falling 23.6% – meaning the loss was due to other factors…

Let’s get into the article.

Cardiff City Profit and Losses

Revenue Analysis

Cardiff City Revenue

Revenue was down 13.7%, following a worrying downward trend ever since the club were relegated from the premier League in 2014.

Revenue compromises income from matchdays and gate receipts, TV broadcasting revenue based on televised games and competition finishes and commercial revenue from merchandise and sponsorship’s.

Cardiff experienced declining matchday and broadcasting revenues, with a fall in broadcasting revenue the main culprit for the decline of 13.7%.

Broadcasting revenue was down 17.3%, falling to £20.6m from £24.9m. This was down in part due to finishing four places lower in the Sky Bet Championship after last seasons 8th place finish. They also due to this were not a ‘premier’ team to broadcast due to their mid table position there were no huge stakes to their games during the season; and as such, they were not televised regularly compared to last season where they were in a playoff battle that they were ultimately unsuccessful in by narrow margins.

Matchday revenue fell ever so slightly by 2.8%, falling to £3.5m from £3.6m despite average attendances rising slightly, with a marginally lower tickets pricing/ less pies being the main reasons.

Commercial revenue rose by a small margin increasing by 3.4%, with revenue from this source rising by around £100k to £3m to pretty much offset the loss in revenue made on matchday.

Losses as mentioned, increased spectacularly this year despite a larger fall in expenses (analysed below) than revenue. This is largely due to exceptional income of £10m last year relating to a loan write off by the owner, this is essentially treated as income as Cardiff no longer have to pay back that debt – despite no money changing hands at this point.  This £10m exceptional income amounted to 32% of last year’s revenue!

The loan write off was needed to help with Cardiff’s compliance with Financial Fair Play rules. No such loan write-off occurred this period – which is why losses increased by such a large extent despite operating loss remaining fairly similar.

Cardiff will be hoping to reverse these downward trends after a so far successful season and we would expect all three revenue sources to rise next year. Matchday revenue should increase based on a revitalised fan base likely to spend more on matchday. Commercial revenue has experienced growth and an exciting campaign is likely to continue that upward trend. Broadcasting revenue will also rise based on a higher league finish and more televised games due to their promotion chase.

Expenses Analysis

Cardiff City Operating costs

Cardiff’s operating costs fell a promising 23.6%. Significantly lower amortisation and impairment costs were the major reason for this decrease, more information on what these costs are can be found here.

Amortisation and impairment costs fell 36.9% to £5.8m from £9.2m due to the exit of 9 players and the incoming of only 5, with only 2 of these being signed for a transfer fee that will go towards amortisation costs.

Cardiff City Staff Costs

Wages fell significantly as well by 13.9% to £26m from £30.2m due to the after mentioned transfers, with some high-earners departing. Playing staff numbers were down 5.5%, contributing to this fall in costs.

Outside of operating costs, finance costs remarkably rose 277.3% due to a huge increase in how they account for their shareholder loans. Finance costs rose from a modest £2.2m to £8.3m, with £5.8m relating to the complex accounting treatment of their shareholder loans. Essentially the shareholders loan is reduced each year based on its update value, this year was larger due to a change in the way the loan was treated.

Lastly there was a £2.2m severance paid to previous management, including sacked manager Russell Slade. There were no similar costs this year.

Transfers Analysis

Cardiff City Net Spend

Cardiff have had a negative net spend for all three years since relegation. However this has been on a positive upward trend each year, even having a positive net spend in the current season.

Last season Cardiff brought in 5 players at a cost of £3.9m, with the highlights being Lex Immers (£2.1m) from Feyernoord and the regrettable signing of Rickie Lambert (£1.8m) from West Brom being the only players signed for a transfer fee.

Leaving the club were 9 players (contributing to the falling wages) for £6.3m, with Keeper David Marshall (£3.7m), Ex-Manchester United defender Fabio (£2.1m) and Simon Moore (£0.5m) departing the club for transfer fees to Hull, Middlesbrough and Sheffield United respectively. The remaining players all left on free transfers including their signing Lex Immers, showcasing what a success he was.

This led to a net spend of -£2.4m which considering they finished 12th seems a good return.

Assets/Liabilities Analysis

Cardiff City Debt

Cardiff net debt has been hovering around the £110m mark over the last few seasons with the shareholders owed £115.1m in the long term from the club, up neatly £15m on the previous seasons figure.

The loans carry a interest rate of 7% which would rack up a sizeable £8m bill, however the interest payable was waived by the owners, presumably due to Financial Fair Play restraints, which Cardiff always teeter on the edge off.

A large portion of the debt is convertible to equity (70%), this means the owners can be entitled to a share of the profits each year. This would obviously not be valuable while the club continues to make a loss. Along with Financial Fair Play, this may be a large incentive for the owners to cut spending and costs in the pursuit of personal gains, however a return to the Premier League (which will require spending) offers much greater financial rewards.

 

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